The Miami Heat look for a second straight victory over the Los Angeles Lakers when the teams match up in Game 6 of the 2020 NBA Finals on Sunday. The Lakers lead the series by a 3-2 margin, despite a narrow defeat on Friday in Game 5. Anthony Davis (heel) is listed as probable for the Lakers, while Goran Dragic (foot) is listed as doubtful for the Heat.
Tip-off for Game 6 of Lakers vs. Heat is set for 7:30 p.m. ET. William Hill lists Los Angeles as the 5.5-point favorite in the latest Lakers vs. Heat odds. The over-under for total points is set at 214.5, down two points from the opening line. Before finalizing any Heat vs. Lakers picks for Game 6, be sure to see the NBA predictions from SportsLine’s proven computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and it’s already returned over $5,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks this season. It entered the 2020 NBA Finals on a blistering 61-33 run on top-rated NBA spread picks, returning almost $2,500 on those picks alone. It’s also a sizzling 11-3 on top-rated picks since the NBA’s restart in July. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.
- Lakers vs. Heat spread: Lakers -5.5
- Lakers vs. Heat over-under: 214.5 points
- Lakers vs. Heat money line: Lakers -245, Heat +205
- LAL: The Lakers are 3-5-2 against the spread in the last 10 games
- MIA: The Heat are 6-3-1 against the spread in the last 10 games
Why the Lakers can cover
The Lakers are a dynamic offensive team, and that has been on display against Miami. Los Angeles is scoring 1.164 points per possessions in the NBA Finals, posting a 65.5 percent assist rate and generating 1.79 assists for every turnover. In addition, the Lakers boast a 58.7 true shooting percentage against Miami, and Los Angeles is dominating the glass on both ends. The Lakers are grabbing 32.4 percent of their own misses and, on the defensive side, Los Angeles is holding Miami to only a 19.2 percent offensive rebound rate. Frank Vogel’s team is also No. 3 in the NBA Playoffs in free throw rate, helping to maintain elite overall efficiency.
Defensively, the Lakers ranked in the top three of the NBA in allowing only 1.07 points per possession during the regular season. Los Angeles has a difficult task against a tremendous Miami offense, but the Lakers are generating a turnover on 14.8 percent of possessions in the series. In transition, the Lakers are also elite, ranking No. 2 in the playoffs in allowing only 8.5 fast break points per game, and Los Angeles has been even better in holding Miami to only 6.2 fast break points per game in the series.
Why the Heat can cover
The Heat are enjoying significant offensive success in the series, scoring 1.13 points per possession. Miami is generating 2.05 assists for every turnover, a mark that is elite in any context, and the Heat are committing a giveaway on only 12.5 percent of possessions. From an efficiency perspective, the Heat boast a 59.3 percent true shooting, and Miami is arguably the best passing team in the playoffs, headlined by a 65.8 percent assist rate overall. The Heat are also tremendous at generating free-throw attempts, leading the league in free-throw rate during the regular season and ranking second in the playoffs.
Defensively, the sledding is undeniably more difficult, but Miami ranks sixth in shooting efficiency allowed during the playoffs. That is a strong starting point and, in limiting its own giveaways, Miami ranks quite well in allowing only 15.2 points per game off turnovers in the playoffs and only 14.8 per game in this series.
How to make Lakers vs. Heat picks
SportsLine’s model is leaning under on the total, with Kyle Kuzma and Kendrick Nunn projected to fall short of their season-long scoring averages. The model also says one side of the spread hits in more than 50 percent of simulations. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Heat vs. Lakers? And which side of the spread hits more than 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Lakers vs. Heat spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up over $5,000 on its top-rated NBA picks this season, and find out.